NOTE: I originally posted this item in December. Now that Scott Brown has announced he’s not running in the special election, I am re-posting as a reminder of why this is GOOD news.
Actually, I have no problem with Scott Brown running in the special election we all expect to have in a few months after John Kerry becomes Secretary of State (could he do any WORSE than Hillary’s done?).
Sure, Scott—run! Have fun! Spend another 18 months or so as a US Senator. Polls show you’d be a very strong candidate in a special election:
WBUR poll of 500 registered voters finds U.S. Sen. Scott Brown is in a strong position should there be a special election to fill U.S. Sen. John Kerry’s seat.
MassINC pollster Steve Koczela looked at how well Brown would fare against four current or former Democratic members of Congress.
“We matched him up theoretically against (U.S. Reps.) Ed Markey, Mike Capuano, Steve Lynch and (former U.S. Rep.) Marty Meehan, and in each one of those cases, he led by between 17 and 19 points,” Koczela said.
But please, please, PLEASE Republican Party—DON’T BLOW ANOTHER $50 MILLION ON A PART-TIME SENATE SEAT!
Because Sen. Brown will not be able to hold the seat in a regularly scheduled election. Not gonna happen. How do I know? Because since 2000, only one federal or statewide Republican has won a special election. ONE. And that was the “fluke” election of Mitt Romney, a guy who couldn’t get 40% of the vote here running for president.
Republicans look at Scott Brown’s high approval rating and say “He’s a winner!” Have they forgotten that Sen. Brown had high approval ratings in November when he got crushed by amateur/first-time candidate/serial liar Liz Warren?
Massachusetts voters told pollsters again and again: “I like Sen. Brown, he’s doing a good job, he really is an independent voice…and I’m voting for the Democrat!” Why? Because this is Massachusetts, and Massachusetts doesn’t elect Republicans.
But Obama won’t be at the top of the ticket in 2014, Michael! You’re right—have you forgotten 2010? No Obama, huge GOP tidal wave, great candidates like Charlie Baker and Mary Connaughton…and Republicans lost EVERY FEDERAL AND STATEWIDE ELECTION.
I’m not trying to be mean, I’m not trying to be negative. I’m simply pointing out what should be screamingly, ridiculously obvious: Massachusetts doesn’t elect Republicans. Period.
In fact, I’d put the odds of Sen. Brown winning the special election at 50-50. John Walsh, the head of the state Democratic Party, isn’t going to get caught with his pants down again. President Obama’s data miners will team up with the national Democratic money machine (that funded Liz Warren, remember) and they’ll pump up the vote this spring like they did last month.
What else will liberals have to do with their time and money this May/June, other than holding onto a US Senate seat? And if Obama’s locked in a battle with Congress over ObamaCare or tax reform, do you really think Massachusetts voters are going to send a Republican to Washington to fight against him?
Sen. Brown is such a good candidate (and great guy) that he might—MIGHT—be able to survive in a special election. But the GOP just spent $65,000 a day holding a US Senate seat for less than two years. Is it worth it to do it again?
I’ve got a better idea—spend less money, and spend it more intelligently, repairing the Republican brand in Massachusetts/New England so Republicans can actually be competitive in elections and hold onto seats they win in the future.
Wait—did I say “intelligently” in a paragraph about the Massachusetts Republican Party?
Sorry, my bad.